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The Ganga basin could face flooding once every five years rather than once in 30 years as currently estimated and the chances of a so-called 100-year flood event hitting Kolkata could grow by a thousand times due to climate change, climate scientists said in a report on Monday. The report, written by energy analysts and experts from the UK, the US, China and India, and released worldwide, comes five months before a summit on climate change in Paris in December, where government leaders are expected to strike a new global climate deal. The report said climate change could increase the appeal of terrorism in weak and failing states while highlighting that even in the current scenario, some nations are already struggling to provide the basic needs of their populations, leading to further marginalization of populations where the appeal of terrorism is stronger. It also warned that in the future, climatic conditions could exceed potentially lethal limits of heat stress, even for individuals resting in the shade. The report highlighted increasing risk and probability of severe flooding, large risks to global food security with unprecedented price spikes, extreme water stress leading to water conflicts and unprecedented migration. “As high rates of global population growth are increasing demand, climate change could further reduce already stressed resources, especially in conflict regions. This could significantly increase the risks of state failures, food restrictions, civil unrest, large-scale migration and internal security hazards,” the report added. The report, an international independent assessment of the risks of climate change, was commissioned by UK government. The experts assessed how emissions would rise, the direct risks on health, food yields, coastal flooding and water stress, and the systemic risks to human systems—conflict and international security concerns, migration, humanitarian assistance, state capacity and state failure. The authors of the report include the UK special representative for climate change David King, Harvard University’s Center for the Environment director Daniel P. Schrag, China’s National Expert Committee on Climate Change member Zhou Dadi, CEO of Indian think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water Arunabha Ghosh and senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, Qi Ye. They have written the report in their independent capacities. The report said that the incidence of extreme drought affecting cropland could increase by about 50% in the US and South Asia, threatening food security. It further cautioned that if the world warms by 4 degrees Celsius, in northern India—Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh—there is a 30% probability that temperatures will be so high that even moderate or heavy outdoor work cannot be carried out in the hottest months. “There is about a 40% chance that individuals in northern India will not be able to participate in competitive outdoor activities in summertime when global average temperatures have risen on average by one degree compared to the present,” said the report. The report found that migration from some regions of the world could become “more a necessity than a choice” and that the risks of state failure could rise significantly, affecting many countries simultaneously, including those that are currently considered developed and stable. “Migration could take place on a historically unprecedented scale. It seems likely that the capacity of the international community for humanitarian assistance would be overwhelmed,” the report said. “The most important decision any government has to make about climate change is one of priority: how much effort to expend on countering it, relative to the effort that must be spent on other issues. This risk assessment aims to inform that decision,” said Ghosh.
Keywords
Migration, India, climate change, global warming, climate-induced displacement, Ganga basin, water conflicts
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