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Last Sunday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, a mob of angry workers set fire to seven buses outside the offices of the region's largest construction company Saudi Binladin. The workers, mostly Indians and Pakistanis, were protesting against the sacking of over 25,000 workers. Many have not received several months' wages, reported local papers. These workers can no longer stay in the country as they have been given their exit visas. The simmering crisis in the Gulf region, an impact of plummeting oil prices and global economic woes, is sending ripples across the seas to pollbound Kerala. There are over 2.4 million Keralites working abroad of which 85% work in the Gulf region, according to the Kerala Migration Study (KMS 2014) by Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram. That's over 2 million emigrant workers. The remittances sent home by this huge workforce is estimated at Rs 24,374 cr while total remittances, which include investment flows etc.add up to over Rs 71,142 cr as per the study. About 19% households currently had an emigrant member while another 29% had in the past. Remittances make up over a third of the net state domestic product -20% more than the revenue income of the state government and five times the funds the Centre gives the state. But all this is changing. Since 2014, remittances inflow started faltering; it has since dipped by over Rs 23,350 cr in 2015 (World Bank). This follows a smaller slip in 2014. Can this likely impact the elections? The decline is not big, it will not have a big effect says S Irudaya Rajan, CDS professor and a co-author of the study . The impact will be visible if the decline continues for three to five years, he believes, adding that the emigrant Keralite does play a significant role in elections. "In earlier elections, about 10,000 emigrants came back to vote. But more importantly , the 2.4 million Keralites working abroad have their wives, brothers, sisters and parents, estimated to be about 10 million votes in Kerala. They can change the political scenario of Kerala, if they influence their families," Irudaya Rajan said. The long term trends of emigration are not very rosy says the KMS analysis. Emigration is likely to decline not because of external factors but due to Kerala's contracting youth population, better education, higher wages in India and prospects in other states. There were an estimated seven lakh migrants living in other states of India in 2014 while about four lakh Keralites had returned back to the state after working in other states.While these numbers are small compared to emigrants going abroad, but adding the two together, the total number of Keralites seeking work outside the state is enormous. This is an indication of the severe employment crisis in the state which will cast a shadow on the electoral process.
Keywords
Saudi Arabia, India, Pakistan, Gulf region, Kerala, economic woes, Centre for Development Studies, emigrant workers, remittance, S Irudaya Rajan, elections, vote, wages
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